Modeling Bitcoin Volatility Through Structural Breaks: A Compositional Perspective

Recent advances in time series modeling have emphasized the importance of structural breaks—abrupt changes in the underlying dynamics of financial or economic data. The paper “Directional-Shift Dirichlet ARMA Models for Compositional Time Series with Structural Break Intervention” (Katz, 2026) introduces a Bayesian framework that captures these breaks using three interpretable …