There is a new call for papers for a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on “Innovations in hierarchical forecasting”.

Guest editors: George Athanasopoulos, Rob J Hyndman, Anastasios Panagiotelis, and Nikolaos Kourentzes.

Submission deadline: 31 August 2021.

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Someone asked us for the birthday data, and Aki replied: We used 1969-1989 also in BDA3 https://users.aalto.fi/~ave/BDA3.pdf And there we mention that the birthday data come from the National Vital Statistics System natality data and are at http://www.mechanicalkern.com/static/birthdates-1968-1988.csv, provided by Robert Kern using Google BigQuery. The code for the BDA3 example is at https://research.cs.aalto.fi/pml/software/gpstuff/demo_births.shtml (with …

A couple people pointed me to this recent econometrics paper, which begins: In the single IV model, current practice relies on the first-stage F exceed- ing some threshold (e.g., 10) as a criterion for trusting t-ratio inferences, even though this yields an anti-conservative test. We show that a true 5 percent test instead requires an …

Following up on our previous posts here and here … I came across this interview of John Conway and Siobhan Roberts, Conway’s biographer: Siobhan, from the book I felt that there was a strong sense of competitiveness and ego in the maths world. In the research that you did, and conversations that you …

听朋友说国内在筹拍一部讲施琅的电影，在现在的台海局势下，这部电影的现实意义不言而喻。 抛开现实，我对这个电影怎么拍，具体说，怎么处理清朝和郑家 …

Riding on the street, I can usually tell what cars in front of me are going to do, based on their “body language”: how they are positioning themselves in their lane. I don’t know that I could quite articulate what the rules are, but I can tell what’s going on, and I know that I …