I’ve posted a new manuscript titled “Uncertainty of prior and posterior model probability: Implications for interpreting Bayes factors.” Here’s a summary and examples to stimulate your interest.
Summary:
In most applications of Bayesian model comparison or Bayesian hypothesis testing, the results are reported in terms of the Bayes factor only, not in terms of the posterior probabilities of the models. Posterior model probabilities are not reported because researchers are reluctant to declare prior model probabilities, which …