No, an election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up.” No, the election forecasters in 2024 did not say, “Whatever happened, it was supposed to be razor thin.”

tl;dr. In 2024, pre-election polls were off by about 2 percentage points. Election forecasters were aware of this and incorporated this into their uncertainties. But if you were not following the forecasts carefully, you might’ve not realized this. You might … Continue reading → …