Bayesian inference (and mathematical reasoning more generally) isn’t just about getting the answer; it’s also about clarifying the mapping from assumptions to inference to decision.

Palko writes: I’m just an occasional Bayesian (and never an exo-biologist) so maybe I’m missing some subtleties here, but I believe educated estimates for the first probability vary widely with some close to 0 and some close to 1 with … Continue reading → …