Going for it on 4th down: What’s striking is not so much that we were wrong, but that we had so little imagination that we didn’t even consider the possibility that we might be wrong. (I wonder what Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel Kahneman, Josh “hot hand” Miller, and other experts on cognitive illusions think about this one.)

In retrospect, it’s kind of amazing how narrow our sports thinking used to be. As a kid, I always loved when teams would go for it on 4th down or try an onside kick or run trick plays like fake … Continue reading → …