“You should always (always) have a Naive model. It’s the simplest, cleanest, most intuitive way to explain whether your system is at least treading water. And if it is (that’s a big IF), how much better than Naive is it.”

Jonathan Falk points us to this bit from baseball analyst Tangotiger, who writes: Back around 2002 or so, I [Tango] was getting really (really) tired with all of the baseball forecasting systems coming out of the woodwork, each one proclaiming … Continue reading → …