Forecasting and the importance of being uncertain

What: 2006 Belz lecture, Statistical Society of Australia (Victorian branch) When: 6.15pm, 24 October 2006 Where: Old Geology Theatre 1, University of Melbourne Forecasters had an inauspicious beginning, dabbling with divination, sheep’s livers and vapour-ridden caves in the mountains of Greece. Then there was a time when forecasters could be charged with vagrancy! Their reputations are still tarnished, but their tools are rather more effective. Professor Rob Hyndman will argue for the importance of statistical modelling in forecasting, and demonstrate the dangers that occur when …