The accuracy of television network rating forecasts: the effects of data aggregation and alternative models

This paper investigates the effect of aggregation in relation to the accuracy of television network rating forecasts. We compare the forecast accuracy of network ratings using population rating models, rating models for demographic/behavioural segments and individual viewing behaviour models. Models are fitted using neural networks, decision trees and regression. The most accurate forecasts are obtained by aggregating forecasts from segment rating models, with neural networks being used to fit these …