Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models

Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programs and evaluation of screening programs. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality functions using a state-space approach. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in five year age groups (45 to …