Between-state correlations and weird conditional forecasts: the correlation depends on where you are in the distribution

Yup, here’s more on the topic, and this post won’t be the last, either … Jed Grabman writes: I was intrigued by the observations you made this summer about FiveThirtyEight’s handling of between-state correlations. I spent quite a bit of time looking into the topic and came to the following conclusions. In order …