Here’s our current forecast for Florida: We’re forecasting 52.6% of the two-party vote for Biden, with a 95% predictive interval of approx [47.0%, 58.2%], thus an approx standard error of 2.8 percentage points. The 50% interval from the normal distribution is mean +/- 2⁄3 s.e., thus approx [50.7%, 54.5%]. Yes, I know these predictive distributions …