Uncertain futures: what can we forecast and when should we give up?

Statistical Society of Australia AGM, 17 August 2021 Australian Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, 24 August 2021. Why is it that we can accurately forecast a solar eclipse in 1000 years time, but we have no idea whether Google’s stock price will rise or fall tomorrow? Or why can we forecast the daily electricity consumption for the next week with remarkable precision, but we cannot forecast daily COVID-19 cases with the same …