Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

This paper provides a non-systematic review of the progress of forecasting in social settings. It is aimed at someone outside the field of forecasting, wanting to appreciate the results of the M4 Competition by reading a survey paper to get informed about the state of the art of this discipline. It discusses the recorded improvements over time in forecast accuracy, the need to capture forecast uncertainty, and what can go wrong with predictions.<img src=“http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ProfessorRobJHyndman/~4/yPL2ka6q1aw" height=“1” width=“1” …